Executive Summary
1 World total liquids production remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.

2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak. The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012. The forecast to 2012 shows a slight decline to 2009, followed by a 3%/yr decline rate to 2012.

3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s. The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48.

4. World C&C year on year production changes to October 2007 and November 2007 show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia and significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.

5. Saudi Arabia retains its 2005 C&C peak, which is the same as the peak year for world C&C. Saudi Arabia C&C production has dropped to 9.0 mbd which is 0.6 mbd less than its peak in 2005. It is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005.

6. Kuwait retains its 2006 minor C&C peak. Kuwait C&C production has now dropped to 2.5 mbd which is less than its peak in 2006. There is a strong likelihood that Kuwait has passed its minor 2006 peak. Kuwait’s major peak was 3.3 mbd in 1972.

7. UAE retains its 2006 C&C peak. UAE C&C production has now dropped to 2.6 mbd, adjusted for maintenance, which is just less than its peak in 2006. There is a reasonable likelihood that UAE passed its 2006 peak.

8. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due mainly to new OPEC projects. World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to almost double by 2012. World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012.

info from: http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/update